September 10, 2026
El Niño is strengthening in the Pacific, and it could play an important role in Texas weather this winter.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says there is now a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during fall and winter 2026–27. Its current outlook also gives the event a 69% chance of reaching a level from October through December that would exceed previous El Niño events in its record dating back to 1950.
That doesn't necessarily mean another February 2021 is coming. El Niño changes the odds of certain weather patterns over a season, but it cannot predict a particular storm or freeze.
What it does give Texas homeowners is a good reason to understand the potential risks and prepare early.
What does El Niño mean for Texas?
El Niño is the warm phase of a recurring climate pattern known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. Warmer-than-normal water in the tropical Pacific interacts with the atmosphere and can shift weather patterns around the world.
In Texas, El Niño has historically tended to favor cooler and wetter conditions, particularly during winter, although the effects vary considerably across the state and from one El Niño to another.
The National Weather Service says strong or very strong El Niño events have historically been associated with cooler-than-normal conditions in North and Central Texas, particularly during the second half of winter and early spring. Southeast Texas can also see increased rainfall and somewhat cooler conditions.
Though it doesn't automatically mean an extreme freeze, NOAA cautions that even during a very strong El Niño, typical impacts are more likely.
So the takeaway isn't that Texas should expect another Winter Storm Uri. It's that severe winter weather and power outages are possible, and preparing early gives homeowners more options.
Texas winter preparedness checklist
FEMA recommends preparing for winter storms and power outages before severe weather arrives, including having enough supplies to remain at home for several days if necessary.
Before colder weather arrives:
Build or refresh your emergency supply kit with water, nonperishable food, medications, flashlights, batteries and first-aid supplies.
Sign up for local emergency alerts and make sure you can receive National Weather Service warnings.
Know what in your home depends on electricity, especially medical equipment, heating systems, refrigerators, well pumps and communications. If someone in your home relies on electrically powered medical equipment, have a dedicated backup plan in place rather than relying on solar and battery storage alone.
Keep phones and portable battery banks charged when severe weather is forecast.
Protect exposed pipes and know how to shut off your home's water.
Check smoke and carbon monoxide detectors and replace batteries if needed.
Have a plan for pets, medications and somewhere warm to go if your home loses power for an extended period.
If you own a generator, test it before you need it and review how to operate it safely.
Never operate a portable generator, grill or other combustion equipment indoors or in a garage. FEMA recommends operating generators outdoors and at least 20 feet from windows, doors and garages.
How solar and battery backup can help during an outage
One common misconception is that having solar panels means your home will automatically have power when the grid goes down.
Most standard grid-connected solar systems shut down during an outage to prevent electricity from being sent back onto power lines while utility crews may be working.
Battery backup changes that.
A properly designed solar + battery system can disconnect from the grid during an outage and use stored energy to keep selected parts of the home powered. Depending on the system design and battery capacity, that could include:
Refrigerators and freezers
Lights
Internet and communications
Selected outlets
Heating-system controls
Other essential circuits
During the day, solar panels can recharge the battery when sufficient sunlight is available, helping extend how long the home can operate independently. Some systems can also integrate a generator for another layer of backup during longer outages.
The U.S. Department of Energy identifies solar paired with energy storage as one way to improve electrical resilience during outages.
How much battery backup do you actually need?
A battery isn't unlimited power. How long it can support your home depends on battery capacity, energy usage, which circuits you're powering, solar production and the duration of the outage.
Large loads such as air conditioning or electric resistance heating can use stored energy much faster than a refrigerator, lights, internet and a few essential circuits.
For homeowners who need a higher level of resilience, a microgrid combining solar panels, batteries and a generator can provide an additional source of backup power during longer outages. This is the approach we recommend when a homeowner needs to operate medical equipment off-grid.
Rather than wondering which battery to buy, we suggest asking “What do I need to keep running when the grid is down, and for how long?”
That answer helps inform the design of your backup system.
Prepare for outages, not predictions
We don't know exactly what winter 2026–27 will bring to Texas. But we do know El Niño is strengthening, and severe weather doesn't need to reach 2021 levels to disrupt power.
Preparing now can mean something as simple as checking emergency supplies and protecting your pipes. It can also mean thinking about how your home would function if the grid were down for several hours or days.
At Atma Energy, we design solar and battery systems around the home and the loads homeowners want to keep powered during an outage.
If you're considering battery backup before winter, we're happy to help you understand your options and what level of backup makes sense for your home.